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Do Crime Rates Increase During Hard Economic Times?

by Carolyn · 3 comments

Crime Rates

Communities everywhere are seeing an increase in theft or robbery. Some say that these increases in crime are because of poor economic conditions. How is the state of the economy connected to crime rates? Does crime really increase in periods of recession, or is it simply a myth?

Signs of a Tough Economy

There are several indicating factors that can signal an economic downturn. In most cases, this includes:

  • Decrease in Property Values
  • High Unemployment Rates
  • Stock Market Crash
  • Job Cuts
  • High Rate of Home Foreclosures
  • Increased Number of Bankruptcy Filings

Theory: Bad Economy = More Crime

A lot of people believe that when money is tight, people are more likely to resort to desperate measures. Unfortunately, some of those who are unemployed, and struggling to feed their families, may turn to burglary or theft in order to keep up with their expenses.

An independent research study conducted by the Police Executive Research Forum reported that in January of 2010, 44% of police departments believed that they were seeing an increase in crimes that were directly related to the poor state of the economy. Other reported statistics from this study included:

  • 40% increase in theft
  • 32% of departments surveyed had an increase in burglaries
  • 39% of departments surveyed had an increase in robberies

Many of these crimes are “opportunistic” crimes, such as the theft of GPS devices from vehicles.

However, the increase might not only be caused by personal financial hardship. Since many areas of a community experience cutbacks during hard economic times, many police agencies are also being hit with cuts. Budgets for police stations are being cut nationwide, with the same study reporting that 63% of agencies reporting that they believed that their funding would be cut further within a year. With the lack of a good budget, police agencies aren’t able to respond as efficiently to prevent crime. This also may cause a decrease in patrols, which could also be construed to contribute to higher crime.

Theory: Economic Conditions Have No (or Very Little) Impact on Crime

Some people believe that the economic situation does not affect the overall crime rate in a community. Many advocates of this theory point to the Great Depression, which had a relatively low crime rate. By comparison, the “Roaring 20′s”, which were a period of perceived economic prosperity, had a relatively high crime rate. According to David Kennedy from John Jay Criminal Studies, the same pattern occurred in the 50′s and 60′s – an expanding economy, but higher crime rates.

What do you think?

It’s hard to say which side is right in this debate. Since the current recession is still in progress, it’s hard to tell what projected crime rates would have been in a good economy, compared to what they are currently.

Statistics are one thing, but it’s personal experiences that really speak volumes about the true nature of crime. How about you? Have you seen an increase in crime in your neighborhood during tough economic times? Or, has your community become closer in a bad economy, resulting in a lower crime rate?

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  • Anders

    I don’t see why you present these arguments as if they were mutually exclusive.
    How is there a right or wrong side here?

    People gotta eat. If they can’t get food legitimately, they steal it. (Overly simplistic, but I believe the basic point is true). But this also extends in to the “opportunity side” of things: if you’re hard pressed for cash (whatever), you are more likely to grab an opportunity that arises.

    But, that less police on the streets also makes opportunities more plentiful is also true (I’ve seen studies confirming that a lot of crime is opportunistic, and politicians and police have repeatedly argued for a more visible police force becaues of this).

    And that comes around again to people who are in need: they’ll be more likely to take an opportunity they wouldn’t otherwise take.

    So, again, I don’t understand why there are two sides to this “debate” (or whether there actually is a debate at all), cuz AFAISI both arguments actually needs the other one..

  • James

    Thanks for your thoughts Anders!

    I agree that theft or burglary and other crimes are highly opportunistic naturally.

    I’m not sure I agree with you yet (I could agree with you…but not yet) when you say both arguments actually needs the other…because the argument seems clear – there are really three stances one might take in this debate…a neutral/in the middle one, which may be where you stand? The two others are: Yes, a poor economy contributes to higher crime rates OR No, a poor economy does not contribute to higher crime rates.

    I’m probably in the ‘Yes’ crowd because I believe more people force themselves to commit a crime when they ordinarily would not in poor economic conditions. Given that so many more are in the position where they have to even approach that line makes it obvious to me that more people will cross the line than at any ordinary economic time in their lives. More people toeing a line = more people stepping over that line.

    Then again…correlation doesn’t always lead to causation. Right?

  • Anders

    I think we agree, James. I misread part of the blog post, making a mess of my own arguments :)

    I do believe that economic downturn leads to an increase in crime rates. In fact, I believe it is mostly inevitable, because for some people the economic conditions get bad enough that they don’t actually have a choice. Ie. ppl. who were already suffering badly before the economic downturn. Then you have all the opportunists on top of that.

    Reading the blogpost, I misread “police budget” argument as if it were presented as an alternative to the “personal economy” argument for increase in crime. Thus my confusion.

    Having said that, the past 10 years have shown that at least some types of crime increase when times are good. Ie. major financial scams etc. I’m guessing the availability of ppl with too much money to spare is the reason for that. Such crimes necessarily go away when the cash flow stops.

    You could also make that argument for pettier crimes, like: GPS theft is up, because now “everyone” can afford one, increasing opportunity.
    And luxury items have been targeted more in the past decade, at least over here in Norway.

    But since the pettier crimes are more plentiful, they affect the crime rates more than the larger schemes (if you count number of crimes). And, simultaneously, those good times that create opportunities for more theft (expensive TVs, stereos, GPS etc.) removes the incentive for many opportunists to take advantage of the situation, while also making it possible for those who were unwillingly forced across that line to step back.

    Thus, I think crime rates are going to rise more in bad times, than in good times.